What will shape deal-making in 2025?

By Graham Morgan, Vistage Chair

Global forces are reshaping the M&A landscape across Australia and New Zealand. The energy transition, artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical complexity are driving deal activity, while private equity firms stand ready to deploy capital. But with interest rates stabilising, regulatory changes on the horizon, and growing cyber risks, business leaders must proceed with strategic clarity.

The ANZ Women in Dealmaking 2025 M&A Outlook Report provides a focused view of the trends defining this dynamic year. Here’s what leaders need to know to seize the opportunities that lie ahead.

AI is transforming M&A execution with remarkable efficiency. The report highlights its ability to streamline due diligence, risk assessment, and decision-making, cutting transaction timelines significantly. By rapidly analysing complex datasets, AI can uncover issues such as financial anomalies or legal red flags, helping sharpen judgement and accelerate progress. This frees dealmakers to focus on strategy rather than manual processes, a shift already proving its value in competitive markets.

That said, negotiation remains a distinctly human skill. Trust-building and finalising terms still rely on experience and intuition. As the report points out, success in 2025 will come from blending AI’s strengths with strategic oversight.

Private capital is set to fuel a resurgence in M&A activity. With interest rates stabilising, the report points to growing investor confidence, particularly in infrastructure, technology, and healthcare. Private equity firms, holding substantial reserves, are actively seeking deals with strong This marks a shift from the caution of previous quarters. As conditions align, deal volumes are likely to rise. For Australian businesses, this creates a timely opportunity to attract investment or pursue acquisitions. But success will depend on being ready to act, with a clear value proposition and alignment across leadership.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors are now central to M&A due diligence. The report notes intensified scrutiny from buyers, driven by stricter regulations and the need to mitigate reputational risks, such as greenwashing claims. This involves assessing a target’s environmental impact, workforce practices, and governance structures with precision. ESG is no longer an optional consideration, it’s a critical lens for evaluating long-term viability and stakeholder trust. Businesses must integrate these priorities into their deal strategies, ensuring compliance and alignment with market expectations. In 2025, robust ESG diligence will separate resilient deals from those vulnerable to oversight.

Certain sectors are emerging as M&A focal points. The report identifies healthcare, software-as-a-service (SaaS), and renewables, alongside B2B technology, clean energy, and financial services—as areas with stable earnings and long-term potential. Healthcare thrives on demographic demand, SaaS on scalable revenue models, and renewables on sustainability goals. These industries attract investors seeking resilience and future-ready returns, reflecting broader economic shifts. For Australian leaders, understanding these trends can guide resource allocation, partnerships, or divestitures. Positioning within these sectors could unlock significant value as investor interest intensifies throughout 2025.

Regulatory shifts will add complexity to M&A in Australia. The report flags new laws, effective from 2026, requiring pre-approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for certain deals. This change, targeting mid-market transactions, will demand earlier planning and increased transparency, potentially impacting timelines and costs. Businesses must anticipate these requirements, embedding compliance into their deal frameworks now to maintain momentum. Proactive adaptation will be essential to navigate this evolving landscape, ensuring regulatory hurdles don’t stall strategic objectives.

The convergence of AI, private capital, ESG priorities, sector opportunities, and regulatory changes creates a complex M&A environment. The report frames the key challenge: distinguishing short-term volatility from long-term trends. For Australian business leaders, 2025 offers a chance to drive value through informed, decisive action. Success will hinge on leveraging these insights, balancing innovation with discipline, to turn complexity into opportunity. The Vistage community stands ready to support this journey, fostering the collaboration and clarity needed to thrive. what it means to be a change leader.

Graham Morgan is the Managing Director of Morgan Shaw Advisory, a boutique Corporate Advisor. He chairs two Vistage groups in Australia, guiding Chief Executives and Key Executives through strategic growth challenges and is an Advisor to Family Business Australia.